We stand at a crossroads where accelerating technological change forces us to ask fundamental questions about what it truly means to be human, and how we best prepare the next generation to not just survive, but to progress. Our world is increasingly shaped by intelligent machines, and as long as the energy and rare earths hold out, this will only accelerate. Our old metrics of success—rote memorization, standardized test scores, narrow specialization—are increasingly misleading. The question is no longer simply what children should learn, but how they can become adaptable, creative, and deeply connected individuals capable of navigating unprecedented complexity. This week, we’ll dive into research that offers new insights into this challenge, pointing towards the crucial factors and experiences that truly unleash human potential.

Our journey begins with a surprising finding from the world of elite performance: the path to world-class excellence isn't paved with early specialization, but with diverse exploration. As the research on elite athletes and Nobel laureates demonstrates, those who achieve the highest levels of accomplishment often started later in their main field and trained across a broader range of disciplines in their formative years. This isn't about creating a narrow prodigy optimized for a single task; it's about building a resilient, multifaceted individual with a deeper foundation of skills and a wider perspective. This endogenous exploration, driven by genuine curiosity rather than external pressure, seems to cultivate a different kind of capability—one that fosters sustainable, long-term excellence.

Next, we turn to the classroom and strategic games. A new study reveals that academic success in middle school correlates with strategic thinking and cooperative ability in complex games. High-achievers, on average, are better at anticipating moves, coordinating strategies, and securing better outcomes. But I suspect the relationship isn't so simple. It's not just that good grades make you good at games. Rather, both academic success and strategic mastery in complex interactions likely stem from a deeper, shared wellspring: meta-learning. The ability to understand how to learn, to assess situations, to adapt, and to collaborate effectively—these are the skills that fuel both high academic performance and strategic prowess in life's "games". The observed heterogeneity in the study is a crucial signal; it suggests that grades alone don't capture the full picture of these diverse meta-learning factors, and understanding these underlying skills directly is key to truly cultivating capability.

Finally, we look to the very beginnings of life, to the littlest scientists in cribs and playrooms. Research on infants shows that even at 11 months old, babies differ in their responsiveness to events that violate their expectations, those moments when the world doesn't behave as our brains, young and old, predict. And these differences persist, predicting explanation-based curiosity at age 3. Some children seem more sensitive to their own "prediction errors", better at spotting when their internal model of reality is wrong. This is not just an academic curiosity; it could be foundational to meta-learning. How can we learn if we don't first recognize when our understanding needs updating? For me, the profound question this raises is whether this crucial ability can be nurtured and developed throughout childhood.

These three studies, spanning elite performance, strategic thinking, and infant development, converge on a powerful truth: the key to thriving in an uncertain future lies in cultivating foundational meta-learning skills—the ability to learn, adapt, explore, assess, and connect despite uncertainty—rather than simply focusing on narrow knowledge acquisition or early specialization. But how do we translate these insights into action? How do we build educational systems that nurture these capabilities at scale?

This is the challenge that has driven my work for decades, and it is the core mission of Socos Learning. I am beyond thrilled to announce that Socos Learning is being relaunched, with my brilliant wife, Dr. Norma Ming, at the helm. Norma, with her deep expertise and passion for equitable education, is leading a revolution. Together, building on the foundation of Socos Labs' research and The Human Trust's commitment to ethical data stewardship, we are poised to fundamentally change how we approach education. We are translating these cutting-edge insights into practical tools and methodologies designed to cultivate meta-learning, empower both students and educators, and ensure that every child, regardless of background, has the opportunity to become a resilient explorer, a strategic thinker, and a curious scientist of their own world. Let’s build a human-centered education for an AI-rich world.

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Research Roundup

Endogenous Exploration > Exogenous Perfection

Want your kids to achieve world-class excellence? Don’t engineer a specialist prodigy; cultivate a multidisciplinary explorer.

A massive meta-analysis of “51 international study reports…from 6,096 athletes, including 772 of the world’s top performers” found that elite adult athletes trained across more sports as kids, started their main sport later, and progressed slower than youth prodigies.

Despite their seemingly wild differences, Nobel laureates show the same pattern of more “multidisciplinary study/working experience and slower early progress than” peer prodigies.

So, focus on fostering varied experiences in kids, experiences driven by endogenous motivation, to lay a sustainable foundation for long-term excellence… even if it feels slow. Rather than aiming to brag about your child, build a whole human being you don’t need to brag about… because everyone already knows who they are.

Win-Win, said the TikTok Man

Academic grades might reflect something deeper than just subject knowledge; they could signal proficiency in crucial life skills.

When middle schoolers play strategy games—“Battle of the Sexes and Hawk–Dove”—high academic achievers, on average, were significantly better at coordinating their strategy and obtaining “higher payoffs compared to low achievers”.

I suspect the causality doesn't flow simply from good grades=better cooperation. Rather, it's underlying "meta-learning" that drives both academic success and strategic game skill. Factors like perspective taking, working memory, and self-assessment likely drive better collective intelligence in these games.

Interestingly, there was “substantial heterogeneity within groups”, meaning good grades was not a magic ticket to strategic coordination. Understanding these diverse meta-learning factors directly, rather than just relying on grades, could better explain performance variation and show us how to truly cultivate capability for navigating complexity.

The Littlest Scientists

Would you be surprised to learn that even babies are little scientists, keenly watching to see if the world defies their expectations? Probably not if you are Alison Gopnik, but even she might be surprised to learn that the most “curious” babies become might grow to become the most curious adults

Infants who showed the strongest responses to "impossible" events at 11 months still do at 17 months, and these kids are more curious about explanations at age 3.

This reminds me of a pilot study that found MIT students work harder after a surprising error, where other students tended to quit. In fact the authors of the above study claim that “some children are better than others at detecting prediction errors—a trait that may be linked to later cognitive abilities.”

That’s a big claim, but if it is true, can we develop "prediction error detection" in children or even infants? Can we grow their ability to recognize when their mental model of the world is wrong? If so, this would be a foundational to meta-learning factor to be developed in every little kid.

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SciFi, Fantasy, & Me

Here is the set of Locus SciFi Nominees for 2025:

• The Man Who Saw Seconds, Alexander Boldizar
• Rakesfall, Vajra Chandrasekera
• The Mercy of Gods, James S.A. Corey
• The Bezzle, Cory Doctorow
• The Imposition of Unnecessary Obstacles, Malka Older
• Kinning, Nisi Shawl
• Alien Clay, Adrian Tchaikovsky
• Service Model, Adrian Tchaikovsky
• Space Oddity, Catherynne M. Valente
• Absolution, Jeff VanderMeer

I’ve read many of these but not all, and so my opinion of invalid. But for now I genuinely enjoyed Service Model and its hilarious insights about artificial intelligence.

Stage & Screen

• May 7, Chicago: Innovation, Collective Intelligence, and the Information-Exploration Paradox
• May 8, Porto: Talking about entrepreneurship at the SIM conference in Portugal
• May 13, London: join a breakfast conversation with InterLaw to explore all the scary ways the world had changed of late.
• May 14, London: it time for my semi-annual lecture at UCL.
• May 15, London: join me in the morning for the FT Chairs’ Forum to talk about "The Economics of AI"
• May 15, London: private dinner with DukeCE and London executives to answer specific questions about AI in business (hint: don't just have it write your emails). (Local London execs, let me know if you'd like to join!)
• May 15, Virtual: Plenary for the 24th Annual Health Literacy Conference: "AI, Innovation, and Equity: Transforming Health Literacy for the Future"
• May 23, Berkeley: I'll be talking "Responsible AI" at the Dutch Consulate.
• June 9, Philadelphia: "How to Robot-Proof Your Kids" with Big Brothers, Big Sisters!
• Late June, South Africa: Finally I can return. Are you in SA? Book me!
• September 18, Oakland: Reactive Conference
• October, UK: More med school education

If your company, university, or conference just happen to be in one of the above locations and want the "best keynote I've ever heard" (shockingly spoken by multiple audiences last year)?

Vivienne L'Ecuyer Ming