As AI and automation reshape the future of work, the ability to embrace uncertainty and explore new possibilities will become increasingly essential. But as I argue in How to Robot-Proof Your Kids, our current systems often actively discourage these very qualities. I explore the "information-exploration paradox"—easy access to information actually stifles exploration and creativity. We humans tend to gravitate towards readily available answers, herding around safe, conventional wisdom rather than venturing into the unknown.

This week's newsletter dives into 3 fascinating studies that illuminate this herding behavior in action, revealing how our psychological and cultural biases reinforce this tendency to play it safe, even when risk-free opportunities abound. We'll explore the puzzling phenomenon of "opportunity neglect", uncover how gender and racial bias in biomedical research prevent groundbreaking discoveries from reaching their full potential, and examine how our research funding system often inadvertently punishes risk-takers, hindering the very breakthroughs it aims to support.

Fostering true innovation requires not just access to information, but also training in working under uncertainty and creation of systems that actively incentivise exploration and discovery.

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Research Roundup

Risk Is For Suckers

Here’s an interesting new idea: “opportunity neglect”. We tend to “reject opportunities with low probability of success even when they come with little or no...cost (e.g., time, money, reputation)”.

Participants in a series of experiments wouldn’t take risky bets “even with no possibility of monetary loss and nontrivial rewards (e.g., a 1% chance at $99)”. They also refused “low-probability opportunities more frequently than high-probability opportunities with equal expected value”, and are “even willing to incur costs to opt out of low-probability opportunities”.

One trick can reduce this effect: participants were a little more likely to take these risks when experimenters emphasized “that rejecting an opportunity is equivalent to choosing a zero probability of success”. So, "very small > zero" is apparently nonintuitive.

We really don’t like uncertainty—too bad it’s required for so many good things in life.

We’re biased against uncertainty when we need to be the exact opposite.

Just Because

In biomedical research, “new ideas introduced by female scientists are underutilized”. This is because “they are less connected than men” but also because “researchers (especially men) [are less likely to] adopt women’s ideas” (cuties?). This analysis reveals that similar gaps in adoption “hold for underrepresented racial and ethnic minorities.”

Wasting human potential isn't just unjust—it is self-destructive. Some day you will wish for a cure…that was never discovered.

De-Risk Innovation → Kill Innovation

You cannot de-risk Innovation. Research funding should reward those willing to explore the unknown. Too bad it doesn’t.

An analysis of “more than 100,000 R01 grants” (the principal source of research funding for most US science) found that “risky grants are renewed at markedly lower rates than less risky ones” across 4 separate measures of risk. Worse, “the risk penalty is magnified for more novel areas of research and novice investigators”.

I absolutely acknowledge that this is not the biggest problem at the NIH in this insane moment of history, but when sanity reasserts itself, we must reward the explorers. “Risk bad!” should never be the motto of science

…or VCs. How about no preferred capital gains tax rates for risk-averse investing?

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SciFi, Fantasy, & Me

Invincible is definitely not for everyone—so, so many eviscerations. Now that series* 3 is underway how much I enjoy the humor, the characters, and the mention between being good and saving the world.

* the idea of a TV “season” is just a vestigial absurdity at this point. Let’s put it to bed.

Stage & Screen

• Dublin & Athens were great..if a little chilly. Thanks you to the Irish Management Institute and Global Genomics Education & Training for being wonderful hosts.
• February 26, LinkedIn: I'm online talking about career and innovation in a double header global simulcast.
• March 21, Diablo Valley: Entrepreneur Day!
• May 7, Chicago: Innovation, Collective Intelligence, and the Information-Exploration Paradox
• May 8, Porto: Talking about entrepreneurship at the SIM conference in Portugal
• May 14, London: it time for my semi-annual lecture at UCL.
• June 12, SF: Golden Angels
• June 9, Philadelphia: "How to Robot-Proof Your Kids"
• June 18, Cannes: Cannes Lyons
• Late June, South Africa: Finally I can return. Are you in SA? Book me!
• October, UK: More med school education

If your company, university, or conference just happen to be in one of the above locations and want the "best keynote I've ever heard" (shockingly spoken by multiple audiences last year)?

Vivienne L'Ecuyer Ming