In How to Robot-Proof Your Kids I argue that in a rapidly automating world, simply possessing a high IQ or excelling in a few traditional academic subjects won't guarantee future success. In this week’s research, we see that even moderately above-average individuals across a combination of valuable traits (intelligence, conscientiousness, emotional stability) are relatively scarce. I argue that that wouldn’t be if we explicitly developed them in school and throughout life. The focus shouldn't solely be on maximizing individual talents in isolation but also on cultivating a diverse skillset adaptable to evolving demands. "Robot-proofing" likely involves fostering the kinds of traits found in successful startup founders—resilience, adaptability, creativity, and a drive to learn continuously.

Furthermore, the elite soccer player research below underscores, yet again, the importance of factors like cognitive flexibility, planning, and memory, alongside personality traits like conscientiousness and openness to experience. "Robot-proofing" emphasizes developing these broader cognitive and personality strengths, rather than just focusing on narrow technical skills that can be easily automated. The ability to learn quickly, adapt to new situations, and collaborate effectively will likely be crucial in a world where AI handles routine tasks.

Finally, as we look at the traits that predict startup founder success we see that both elite founders and elite soccer players challenge the traditional emphasis on early specialization. "Robot-proofing" requires a more multidisciplinary approach to learning, encouraging children to explore diverse fields and develop a breadth of knowledge. This broader foundation allows for greater adaptability and the potential to combine skills in novel ways, ultimately making them less susceptible to displacement by automation. Just as successful founders often have diverse backgrounds, and elite soccer players benefit from multi-sport practice, future-proof children will likely be those who develop a wide range of skills and a flexible mindset.

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Research Roundup

How to Robot-Proof Your Soccer Player

How are elite soccer/futbol players like little kids? The exact same factors predict their potential.

A new PNAS paper “used artificial neural networks to comprehensively investigate the personality traits and cognitive abilities of a sample of 328 participants, including 204 elite soccer players from the top teams in Brazil and Sweden.” Compared with everyone else, the most “elite soccer players demonstrate

- heightened planning and memory capacities,

- enhanced executive functions,

    - especially cognitive flexibility,

- elevated levels of conscientiousness, extraversion, and openness to experience,

    - coupled with reduced neuroticism and agreeableness.”

That is quite a potent set of meta-learning traits! Which causes elite performance and which are caused by it? I'm guessing the first two are the causes. The latter two…maybe both ways?

Read more about how to develop these “traits” in How to Robot-Proof Your Kids.

The Unbearable Rareness of Being

How many truly exceptional people exist on the planet today—not just good but truly great at everything? A new model suggests…1.

The model was developed to “estimate the odds of finding individuals who excel across multiple correlated dimensions… intelligence, conscientiousness, and emotional stability”. After building some plausible correlations between these factors into the model (should 2 personality factors be so correlated?), the model estimated that only 16% of the population is above average in all three traits, only 1% is a standard deviation above the population in all traits, only 0.0085% are 2 SDs above, and just 1 person might be 3 SD in all three.

I’m not sure how convinced I am by the model’s assumptions, but it is still intriguing to think that there might only be 1 Mister Terrific out of all 10-ish billion of us. Given my last post, is that person Messi?

Complimentary Founder Personalities

My posts this week have been about personality factors that predict success—so, what predicts success in entrepreneurs? The answer is crucially important in understanding potential in all fields: there isn’t just one recipe for success.

After analyzing 21,187 for exits and acquisitions, this study found that the “personality facets that distinguish successful entrepreneurs include

- a preference for variety, novelty and starting new things (openness to adventure)

- like being the center of attention (lower levels of modesty)

- being exuberant (higher activity levels)”

But even more importantly, there simply wasn’t a single pattern for success. In this case, they found six different “founder-type” personalities:

1. Fighter: “Emotional stability (anger, anxiety, depression, immoderation, self-consciousness, vulnerability).”
2. Operator: “Highest in conscientiousness in the facet of orderliness and high agreeableness in the facet of humility”
3. Accomplisher: “Highly extroverted (all facets) and conscientious (five facets).”
4. Leader: “Highest in openness in the facets of artistic interests and emotionality also highest in agreeableness in facets of altruism and sympathy.”
5. Expert/Engineer: “Highest in openness in the facets of imagination and intellect.”
6. Developer: “’Middle child’ cluster—no facets are maximums or minimums, but it shares characteristics similar to fighters but higher in extraversion.”

Beyond individuals, there are also 3 different combinations of three-founder teams that also predicted success. In fact, these combinations were twice as likely to succeed:

1. Leader and two Developers
2. Operator and two Developers
3. Expert/Engineer, Leader, and Developer.”

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SciFi, Fantasy, & Me

I finally finished the latest Cosmere novel by Brandon Sanderson, Wind and Truth. There is obviously no need for me to recommend his books—I’ll just say that as someone who is constantly on the hunt for smart epic high fantasy, Sanderson scratches a big itch for me. I’ll also note something obvious to readers at this point in the series: along with swords and sorcery and worlds at war, this book is fundamentally about mental health and self-care. I’m curious how a story like this is being read by fans that have also signed on for our supposed new masculine culture shift?

Stage & Screen

• February 18, Dublin: A private event but I know we'll do much more
• February 21, Athens: Medical school education
• March 21, Diablo Valley: Entrepreneur Day
• May 7, Chicago: Innovation * Collective Intelligence
• May 8, Porto: Talking about entrepreneurship at the SIM conference in Portugal
• May 14, London: UCL
• June 12, SF: Golden Angels
• June 9, Philadelphia: "How to Robot-Proof Your Kids"
• June 18, Cannes: Cannes Lyons
• Late June, South Africa: Finally I can return. Are you in SA? Book me!
• October, UK: More med school education

If your company, university, or conference just happen to be in one of the above locations and want the "best keynote I've ever heard" (shockingly spoken by multiple audiences last year)?

Vivienne L'Ecuyer Ming